Dec 24, 2021Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com
Under a null hypothesis of zero VE for deaths and hospital admissions, I would think that we'd reasonably expect both covid deaths and hospital admissions in 2021 to be lower than in 2020 (possibly significantly, but that depends on things like the absolute and relative prevalence of c19 in the two time periods), due to (1) all the natural immunity acquired since 2020, (2) the "stronger 2021 survivor cohort" effect you mention, (3) the fact that delta and omicron (2021) are less severe than the 2020 strains, (4) possible placebo effects as mentioned by Barney, (5) probably lots of other reasons I haven't thought of (e.g. more people realising by now that fresh air, exercise, vitamin C/D etc are helpful compared to 2020 etc).... So it's not clear to me that these charts show any evidence for vaccine efficacy for any of the age groups
Dec 23, 2021Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com
I will dare say that the main positive effect (to the detriment of injection success claims) on deaths of 60+ age groups was a type of placebo effect that injections engendered on the most at risk group. They were offered hope where previously there was despair. The elderly found themselves able to resume a sense normalcy and look forward to living. I assert the RCT success of Fluvoxamine as a plank of support to this theory.
Keeping in mind the high vaxx rates, even among the younger cohorts, I don't think there is evidence of a Marek's effect. The majority of people who have died are fully vaxxed...and some might have been boosted (over 85% of those age 70 and older were boosted by week 50). There are many confounders (pre-infection health status, vaxx fade, Omicron vs Delta). The percentage of death in each age cohort by vaxx status is very similar to the week 39 report. If there is a significant death benefit from the boosters to the older cohorts, it is not yet evident.
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Per the latest UK Health Security Agency week 50 report...
C19 deaths within 28 days of a PCR+ with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 47 and week 50 2021 (Table 10a, page 38)
Age 40-49
Fully vaxxed: 40.7% (46/113)
Unvaxxed: 53.1% (60/113)
Age 50-59
Fully vaxxed: 45.9% (112/244)
Unvaxxed: 47.5% (116/244)
Age 60-69
Fully vaxxed: 65.8% (298/453)
Unvaxxed: 31.1% (141/453)
Age 70-79
Fully vaxxed: 72.4% (525/725)
Unvaxxed: 23.3% (169/725)
Age 80+
Fully vaxxed: 78.2% (1055/1350)
Unvaxxed: 17.9% (241/1350)
===============
Per the UK Health Security Agency week 39 report...
C19 deaths within 28 days of a PCR+ with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 35 and week 38 2021 (Table 4a, page 16)
Under a null hypothesis of zero VE for deaths and hospital admissions, I would think that we'd reasonably expect both covid deaths and hospital admissions in 2021 to be lower than in 2020 (possibly significantly, but that depends on things like the absolute and relative prevalence of c19 in the two time periods), due to (1) all the natural immunity acquired since 2020, (2) the "stronger 2021 survivor cohort" effect you mention, (3) the fact that delta and omicron (2021) are less severe than the 2020 strains, (4) possible placebo effects as mentioned by Barney, (5) probably lots of other reasons I haven't thought of (e.g. more people realising by now that fresh air, exercise, vitamin C/D etc are helpful compared to 2020 etc).... So it's not clear to me that these charts show any evidence for vaccine efficacy for any of the age groups
I will dare say that the main positive effect (to the detriment of injection success claims) on deaths of 60+ age groups was a type of placebo effect that injections engendered on the most at risk group. They were offered hope where previously there was despair. The elderly found themselves able to resume a sense normalcy and look forward to living. I assert the RCT success of Fluvoxamine as a plank of support to this theory.
Keeping in mind the high vaxx rates, even among the younger cohorts, I don't think there is evidence of a Marek's effect. The majority of people who have died are fully vaxxed...and some might have been boosted (over 85% of those age 70 and older were boosted by week 50). There are many confounders (pre-infection health status, vaxx fade, Omicron vs Delta). The percentage of death in each age cohort by vaxx status is very similar to the week 39 report. If there is a significant death benefit from the boosters to the older cohorts, it is not yet evident.
==================
Per the latest UK Health Security Agency week 50 report...
C19 deaths within 28 days of a PCR+ with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 47 and week 50 2021 (Table 10a, page 38)
Age 40-49
Fully vaxxed: 40.7% (46/113)
Unvaxxed: 53.1% (60/113)
Age 50-59
Fully vaxxed: 45.9% (112/244)
Unvaxxed: 47.5% (116/244)
Age 60-69
Fully vaxxed: 65.8% (298/453)
Unvaxxed: 31.1% (141/453)
Age 70-79
Fully vaxxed: 72.4% (525/725)
Unvaxxed: 23.3% (169/725)
Age 80+
Fully vaxxed: 78.2% (1055/1350)
Unvaxxed: 17.9% (241/1350)
===============
Per the UK Health Security Agency week 39 report...
C19 deaths within 28 days of a PCR+ with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 35 and week 38 2021 (Table 4a, page 16)
Age 40-49
Fully vaxxed: 32.6% (30/92)
Unvaxxed: 56.5% (52/92)
Age 50-59
Fully vaxxed: 43.4% (109/251)
Unvaxxed: 49.8% (125/251)
Age 60-69
Fully vaxxed: 65.2% (273/419)
Unvaxxed: 28.9% (121/419)
Age 70-79
Fully vaxxed: 77.5% (623/804)
Unvaxxed: 18.8% (151/804)
Age 80+
Fully vaxxed: 84.1% (1288/1531)
Unvaxxed: 12.5% (185/1531)
================
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports