A follow up to The Everything Bubble, The End Of Growth & Managing Expectations
Trouble is there are also two main ideologies going along with this split in economic view. One ideology automatically 'thinks' centralized preparation/planning is the key (see the above essay, as an example), while the other knows all the billions of individual human "CPUs" will have to laboriously and experimentally work out the needed aggregate solution piecemeal. Centralized preparation/planning hasn't exactly shown itself fitted for this sort work, after all -- see the last 70 or so years of increasing 'financialization' and the last 3 years of 'the COVID' as examples of what I am referring to.
Once again the same old crud "...conventional economics makes the illogical promise of ‘infinite growth on a finite planet..."
That is a just more Malthusian, DeGrowth propaganda from people who have no data so they rely on hand-waving arguments. Do these grifters even know what the word "infinite" means? If we expanded our population a trillion X and used a trillion X the resources, that's not infinite growth. In fact it is infinitely smaller than infinite growth.
The Truth, not Nonsense: Of course Growth is limited. And those limits are complicated and virtually all of them are temporary limits until technology or human interests change. The two most important factors are population on the demand side and energy on the supply side. They are overwhelmingly the most important constraints on growth.
Population: The latest and most accurate assessment of World population is it will peak @ 9.6B in 2064 and then fall to 8.9B in 2100. And that doesn't take into account the large increase in death rate since the Covid Plandemic.
Energy: We are running into a bottleneck on energy. First it will be oil. Followed in about 20-50yrs by gas. Followed by Coal in a similar period. Renewables, are a joke and not even remotely capable of replacing fossil. Far worse than a joke, they are a scam, and reek of an enforced DeGrowth Malthusian Agenda. Nuclear energy however is for all intents and purposes unlimited. Both fission & fusion. And BTW we can likely do fusion economically right now. Just the land area of the Earth has enough Uranium & Thorium to power our current civilization for 100Myrs. And there are much larger resources on the Moon, Asteroids & Mars.
So the reality, limits on Growth is an arm-waving fable pushed by Rent Seekers who just love Scarcity because that = high rents.
Enough of the Malthusian Fear Porn. How about some well documented and unlike the author's thesis, numerically established, Cornucopianism:
Superabundance: The Age of Plenty | Marian Tupy and Gale Pooley | #284
"...Marian Tupy and Gale Pooley are co-authors of the new book, “Super Abundance”. They sit down with Dr Jordan B Peterson to discuss their studies into overpopulation, the myths surrounding the subject, and how academia has created a new philosophy that demonizes modern man simply for existing.
Marian Tupy is the co-author of “Super Abundance”, as well as “10 Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know” and “The Simon Abundance Index”. He is the current editor of humanprogress.org, and is a senior fellow at the center for global liberty and prosperity.
Gale Pooley is the co-author of “Super Abundance,” and is also an Associate Professor of business management at Brigham Young University in Hawaii. He has taught economics all over the world, and earned his PHD from the University of Idaho. He is also well known for his role in the development of the Simon Abundance Index...'
Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet Hardcover – Aug. 31 2022
by Marian L. Tupy (Author), Gale L. Pooley (Author), & 1 more
"...After analyzing the prices of hundreds of commodities, goods, and services spanning two centuries, Marian Tupy and Gale Pooley found that resources became more abundant as the population grew. That was especially true when they looked at “time prices,” which represent the length of time that people must work to buy something.
To their surprise, the authors also found that resource abundance increased faster than the population―a relationship that they call “superabundance.” On average, every additional human being created more value than he or she consumed. This relationship between population growth and abundance is deeply counterintuitive, yet it is true.
Why? More people produce more ideas, which lead to more inventions. People then test those inventions in the marketplace to separate the useful from the useless. At the end of that process of discovery, people are left with innovations that overcome shortages, spur economic growth, and raise standards of living.
But large populations are not enough to sustain superabundance―just think of the poverty in China and India before their respective economic reforms. To innovate, people must be allowed to think, speak, publish, associate, and disagree. They must be allowed to save, invest, trade, and profit. In a word, they must be free...."
Tim does a superb job identifying the issues... but where he falls down is with respect to the outcome.
We have a population of 8 billion --- they are fed using resources that are clearly into very deep depletion... and there is nothing that can replace these resources. Fertilizers and pesticides are mad with oil and gas -- the machinery that operates farms and transports the food to the 8 billion uses oil and gas...
What does it matter if the people who operate the world use policies related to covid to gain more control of the 8 billion -- how does that feed them when the resources hit a tipping point?
We are on the precipice of a total implosion -- caused because the global economy is being strangled by a lack of cheap energy:
“I’m sitting here staring in the face at the biggest and probably the broadest asset bubble — forget that I’ve ever seen, but that I’ve ever studied,” Stanley Druckenmiller said at the May 2023 Sohn Investment Conference.
I fail to understand how more control mitigates the outcome. I suspect Tim is buying into the Great Reset PR ... there's even a website for that https://time.com/collection/great-reset/
How does eating bugs, 15 minute cities and driving EVs and promoting 'renewable' energy fix the end of cheap energy? Lets throw in some dancing Trannies in the grade 3 classroom for good measure.
This Great Rest is total bullshit.
There can be no soft landing. Physics and math dictate the terms -- and they indicate starvation is imminent.
I fail to see how anyone could conclude otherwise... after all --- since that first person sowed the first seed this was the guaranteed outcome
We farm so that we can defy die-back... when population growth is threatened -- we used our brilliant minds to innovate and grow more... culminating in industrial farming that feeds 8 billion.
I suppose nobody wants to admit that our self-proclaimed genius was a suicide mission -- that it was utter stupidity. And that it is - make no mistake.
Nope nobody wants to admit that all the geniuses of history -- the innovators... the inventors --- were marching us towards the cliff - and extinction.
I never fail to be amused when I watch humans take to the stage at the NY stock exchange ... delighted to be listing their companies -- ringing the bell -- drinking Champagne -- and contemplating private jets and super yachts.
The reality is - they are toasting pillage... their toasting the destruction of the planet... the paving over of the planet... of course they are also toasting the depletion of the finite resources that fuel their pillage.
Don't get me wrong --- it's not as if they had a choice...
Consider Rat Island -- it's a small remote island that has 40-50 rats living there... if the population exceeds 50 some of the rats die...
A ship filled with grain washes up on Rat Island... the rats scurry into the hull... and rejoice!!!
Holy F789 -- look at all this food... and that kicks off the mother of all banquets... the other rats join the fray stuffing themselves... dancing whooping celebrating (no bell though...) .... they fornicate like porn stars... thousands of rats are birthed... and they join in ...
Now imagine if a single rat approached and suggested this was a huge mistake ... he tried to explain that this would end badly... he'd be told to f789 off... and called a party pooper
Are we any smarter than the rats? Nope. In fact we are dumber... they didn't grow the grain ... it just washed up...
We've reached the end of the road -- just as the thousands of rats would reach the end of their road when the grain runs out.
Guess what the thousands of rats would do when the grain ran out and they were hungry -- you got it - they'd eat each other.
We are in the same position - but we are 8 billion.
Tim does not connect Covid to any of this - he does not discuss the injections (which I refer to as Rat Juice... for a reason)
There can be no doubt that the Rat Juice is intended to do great harm https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/bio-shocks-monday-june-5-2023-c-and/
Everyone gets the Rat Juice... celebrities politicians athletes... doctors bankers lawyers ... military forces ... everyone...
There has to be a reason why.
Consider 8 billion starving very angry humans .. on the streets...
If you run the show -- do you allow this -- or do you attempt to stop the Gates of Hell opening ... by exterminating the 8 billion --- before the global economy collapses?
Tim does not want to go there... few do ... it's an awful thought.
The US keeps kicking the can down the road instead of dealing with issues that have been obvious for many years. Europe will likely collapse first. I really appreciate this excellent explanation. Any ideas for the average person? I'm tempted to buy a small cabin in the woods and go off the grid, but we're kind of old for that. However we would be free.
Interesting theory. The two economy part I agree with -- it echoes what I hear from Richard Werner and Michael Hudson. As Hudson is fond of saying, "debts that can't be paid won't be paid." A few premises though, cause me to rethink the conclusion:
1) I would wager my future productivity that actual clean, biosupportive, inexpensive energy tech already exists and has been bought and shelved by the cabal. The cost of energy is what the cabal rely on as leverage over the world. From what I've seen, they control virtually every aspect of it from false "green" to "fossil" and its costs, and control the decades-long narratives that have installed the beliefs in the energy / climate "crises" -- the material problems / environmental hazards of this thesis -- in the first place. They use these narratives, repeated ad nauseam by funded / controlled institutions and politicos, to herd people exactly where they want them to go.
2) What happened around 1999 / 2000 to cleave the GDP line from the real economy line? That would be the repeal of Glass--Steagall ... therein lies an obvious onramp to the conjured financial economy the cabal set up so they could do all this gambling with other people's money.
3) We can, in fact, erase debts, as they did regularly in flourishing cyclical ancient Mesopotamian societies for thousands of years. All it takes is deciding the large creditors are not anointed gods in need of everyone's money. Michael Hudson's recent book explains it all. Yves Smith writes in her review: "In ancient Mesopotamian societies it was understood that freedom was preserved by protecting debtors. In what we call Western Civilization, ... just the opposite. For us freedom has been understood to sanction the ability of creditors to demand payment from debtors without restraint or oversight. This is the freedom to cannibalize society. This is the freedom to enslave."
Oh, we can also outlaw usury, again, if we choose.
Everything You Thought You Knew About Western Civilization Is Wrong: A Review of Michael Hudson’s New Book, "And Forgive Them Their Debts"
4) We can indeed reinvest in the real economy, which has been starved of investment imo purposefully by cabal agenda plus the conjured incentives of returns delivered by the conjured financial economy. This wouldn't be financial gimmicky. The growth has been stunted imo on purpose. There's PLENTY of work needed -- infrastructure being just one glaring example. The recovery capacity absolutely exists. Richard Werner argues just that in his recent white paper, while advocating for a sovereign state public bank, which would put the supply of credit into the purview of the people.
So there is absolutely no need to buy in to the notion of "widening and worsening hardship." Plenty of proven examples already exist of solutions. The work is in letting go of the narrative we're bombarded with daily.
"We might describe this as the provision, to households, of debt that they can’t repay to buy things that they don’t need."
Remember that Carlin bit.....
How about staying the execution of fossil fuels? The deliberate dismantling of 85% of the world’s energy capacity and forced conversion to renewables is pure madness. Even if the financial economies of the world were the picture of health and monetary/fiscal responsibility, this destruction of real economies through the destruction of the only available and viable energy available on the planet is beyond asinine. What kind of a “modified consensus” is this? There is no climate crisis whatsoever. The Billionaire oligarchs that are orchestrating this civilizational homicide are in fact sawing off the limb they are sitting on. I can’t help but conclude that they are all fools and idiots.
Given our dire situation what could be better that going All-In for fossil fuels and driving the unit cost to historic lows. We could do it, and real economies would soar.
Admittedly, I didn’t read the whole thing, however, a few paragraphs in it struck me that the whole basis of this theory was predicated upon the previous economic expansion, coming to an end, and this consequent shrinking being a bad thing, presumably, because they would not be enough of various things to go round, however, it struck me that if we are a population that is it self constricting, then what would have been considered as not enough to go round, may actually be enough to go round if there were less people in the system? I am aware that I am starting to sound like some sort of a pound shop Bill Gates. However, I am hopeful, that this may serve as a counterpoint to some of the more alarmist predictions.
They can print money but they cannot print value.
They can undermine values but they cannot eliminate reality.
They can manufacture consent but they can’t re-engineer the truth.
Coincidentally, I was just listening to this this morning: https://youtu.be/GTQnarzmTOc
BREAKING: WHO, EU announce partnership creating ‘global system’ of digital vaccine passports
The digital system 'will help facilitate global mobility and protect citizens across the world from on-going and future health threats, including pandemics,' according to the WHO.
Too many of the general public want to give those in power the 'benefit of the doubt', though there is chaos in the system out there and though "the controllers'" systems and plans are not foolproof, they do implement plans and agendas.
Their idea of good is not good for you. You are the carbon they want to reduce.
Fiat money has run its course, it has bought power and influence to people who naturally would never rise to positions of authority, they will not relinquish this power.
Study the 'Limits to growth' graph and think of it as a plan.
If fossil fuel is removed from society only 20% of the population can be supported.
There is a Depop adgenda to pre emptively reduce the population to fit energy transition
So what is the best thing to do with financial assets? Farmland? Oil? Natural Gas? Buy stuff that will not be available in the future?
Maybe they won't actually propose writing a cheque to "the environment" - but apparently there is a plan for "climate reparations", to be paid by industrialised countries to undeveloped countries. (Or, most probably, channelled through certain NGOs who will have a way to skim most of the money off the top.)
Don't expect common sense to stop the idiocy any time soon!
Umm, seriously? "The remarkably prescient Limits to Growth"? Enough for me to quit following. What utter trash.