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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

And in typical, demonic fashion, “God’s representative on Earth”, who is every bit in line w/ the rest of his WEF & Davos pals, scurries to not have HIS Catholic institution & its enormous wealth suffer the consequences of the very socialist & worse policies & actions to which he is a party, true believer & practitioner.

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

UK Chaos Economics: Fretting over “Financial Stability” & “Contagion” after Gilts Plunged, Bank of England Buys Bonds

It wasn’t big hedge funds that blew up, but £1.5 trillion in leveraged pension funds. BoE stepped in to bail them out and prevent further contagion.

Over the past few days, the pound plunged, including with a flash-crash on Monday that briefly took it to record lows against the US dollar. Prices of long-dated bonds went into a death spiral, with the 10-year yield spiking by 130 basis points in four trading days to 4.63% early today, and by 275 basis points in seven weeks ago (up from 1.88% in early August).

The bond market reaction represents a colossal and sudden degree of “tightening” of the financial conditions, before the Bank of England’s QT had even started. QT is designed to bring up long-term yields, but they already exploded due to chaos.

It was the market’s backlash against the new government’s reckless plan to cut taxes for the rich and for corporations, funded by new debt, while piling on spending to subsidize energy costs, also funded by new debt, thereby requiring the issuance of large amounts of new debt, even as inflation has already reached to 10%.

The Bank of England, which is in charge of maintaining financial stability, now has a slew of problems to deal with: inflation spiraling out of control, currency plunging, bond market in chaos, financial stability at risk, and spreading contagion. And some of them require the response that the others require. So this is a mess, and there are no good solutions.

The BoE chose to maintain financial stability first because the bond market chaos was starting to blow up the financial system, as leveraged pension funds were getting collateral calls triggered by the spike in yields, and as UK lenders had suspended making mortgage offers because no one knew how to price them amid this chaotic volatility in bond yields.

Worried about “contagion” and “financial stability”

So the BoE came out today and said that it would purchase long-dated gilts with remaining maturities of over 20 years. The purchases would go through October 14.

“The purchases will be unwound in a smooth and orderly fashion once risks to market functioning are judged to have subsided,” it said.

And the 10-year yield plunged by around 60 basis points, to 4.01% at the moment, undoing the spike early today and yesterday:

Specifically, the BoE said it’s “monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of UK and global financial assets.”

“This repricing has become more significant in the past day – and it is particularly affecting long-dated UK government debt,” it said.

“Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability,” it said.

“This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy,” it said.

“In line with its financial stability objective, the Bank of England stands ready to restore market functioning and reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses,” it said.

“To achieve this, the Bank will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 September,” it said.

“The purpose of these purchases will be to restore orderly market conditions. The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome,” it said.

“These purchases will be strictly time limited. They are intended to tackle a specific problem in the long-dated government bond market,” it said.

“Auctions will take place from today until 14 October. The purchases will be unwound in a smooth and orderly fashion once risks to market functioning are judged to have subsided,” it said.

Bailing out leveraged pension funds.

Defined-benefit pension plans in the UK that were using an investment strategy, called liability-driven investment (LDI), got hit by collateral calls as long-dated gilts went into the death spiral.

“The amount of liabilities held by UK pension funds that have been hedged with LDI strategies has tripled in size to £1.5 trillion in the 10 years through 2020,” according to Bloomberg.

BlackRock, Legal & General Group Plc, and Schroders Plc manage LDI funds on behalf of pension clients. “The pension firms use them to match their liabilities with their assets, often using derivatives,” according to Bloomberg.

“LDI collateral buffers are partly set using historical data to build models based on the likely probability of gilt price movements,” Shalin Bhagwan, head of pension advisory at DWS Group, told Bloomberg.

I mean, surely this strategy is very conservative and is not risky at all and is very suitable for £1.5 trillion in pension funds. Until it suddenly blows up.

The massive spike in yields of long-dated gilts “blew through the models and the collateral buffers,” Bhagwan told Bloomberg. LDI funds got margin calls from their investment banks and had to post more collateral.

To meet the collateral calls and maintain their LDI positions, pension systems asked their managers to sell holdings in equities, bonds, and UK open-ended real estate funds, Bhagwan told Bloomberg.

And that’s precisely how contagions spreads: by having to sell unrelated assets in order to meet margin calls.

“The BOE had been warned by investment banks and fund managers in recent days that the collateral requirements could trigger a gilt crash, according to a person familiar with the BOE’s deliberations before they stepped in,” according to Bloomberg.

“The BOE intervention was required to prevent a vicious cycle becoming even more dangerous for pension funds forced to sell their gilt exposures,” Calum Mackenzie, an investment partner at Aon, told Bloomberg.

“The market’s swift and significant reaction underlined the big risk faced by pension funds who have had or who could have had their liability hedges reduced,” Mackenzie said.

“Any pension funds which has used even moderate levels of leverage are struggling to keep pace with the moves,” Mackenzie told Bloomberg before the BoE stepped in. “You have a bit of a death spiral potentially where pension funds in particular are being forced to sell because they’re breaching their leverage agreements with their LDI counterparties.”

The Pensions Regulator told Bloomberg today:

“We are monitoring the situation in the financial markets closely to assess the impact on defined benefit pension scheme funding.”

“We again call on trustees of DB schemes and their advisers to continue to review the resilience and liquidity of their investments, risk management and funding arrangements, and plan accordingly to protect the interest of scheme members.”

So there you have it --- continue raising interest rates and the financial system implodes.

Drop interest rates and already dangerous inflation ... will result in hyper inflation.

3 words to summarize this: We are F789ed.

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

Great info and analysis on the financial scene. Let's have more of this.

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Oct 2, 2022·edited Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

It only took 109 years for the forces of greed and evil to crush the fiat system they created. When the Federal Reserve was approved by the ignorant US legislators, they had no idea they were allowing Rockefeller’s, Rothschilds, Carnegie, Morgan, the tiny class of billionaires at the time, the one tool they needed to legally steal the financial wealth of the people who’s toil and struggle they could now profit from. It seems understandable that at the very same time Edward Bernays was drawing up the blueprints of propaganda to sway the once angry untrusting public into actually believing these criminals living in mansions wearing fancy suits care a hoot about them. The results are appearing in plain site everywhere you look.

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

Good post, thanks. This entire situation - financial, cultural, socio-economic, government, international relations - is inter-related. The insanity we find puzzling in our communities is substantially related to all this. In a sane world insanity is not selected for - financial or otherwise. It will be interesting to see if sanity or insanity wins out - very uncomfortable but interesting.

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

Fed’s Favored Inflation Index Says: Underlying Inflation Just Isn’t Slowing Down at All

Just briefly here: The Fed uses the “core PCE” inflation index, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as yardstick for its inflation target. This “core PCE” index – the overall PCE inflation index minus the volatile food and energy components – is therefore crucial in the current rate-hike scenario, amid red-hot inflation, when everyone wants to know when inflation is finally going to cry uncle.

Some folks thought that happened in July, when the month-to-month “core PCE” inflation slowed to “0%” (rounded down).

Turns out this much-ballyhooed month-to-month “core PCE” reading in July of “0%” was just a one-off event. In August, according to the BEA today, the core-PCE inflation index jumped by 0.6%, same as the multi-decade records in June 2022 and in April 2021 (all rounded to 0.6%). As Powell had said during the FOMC press conference: Underlying inflation is just not slowing down.

This “core PCE” is the lowest lowball inflation index the US government provides. But it is crucial in figuring out where the Fed’s monetary policy might go, and how far the Fed might go with its rate hikes, and when it might pause.

Compared to a year ago, the “core PCE” price index rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July.

This year-over-year measure is what the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target. But given the huge volatility in inflation last year, Powell said that they would be looking at month-to-month developments to get a feel of where inflation might be headed. They’re looking for “compelling” evidence that inflation is headed back to the 2% target.

Since about April 2021, I said that the Fed would need to bring its short-term policy rates to 4%, combined with sufficient QT, to bring inflation under control, and then pause to watch it take effect. I said that this would be enough to tamp down on what was then already soaring but still much less inflation. That was my story, and I stuck to it until a few months ago. Now it looks like the Fed will take those rates above 4% by yearend, and higher still next year.

In terms of overall inflation, “core PCE” doesn’t mean much because it is geared toward measuring some underlying inflation beyond the most volatile items that end up dogging consumers the most. But it is very important in terms of understanding what the Fed is looking at when it decides where to go with its rate hikes.

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

And what has caused this situation? When you run out of cheap to produce energy ... that is gonna lead to uncontrollable inflation. And we are running very low on affordable energy (notice I said affordable energy - lots of oil etc left... it just ain't affordable)..

Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.

Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.

What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.

Some key points from this Financial Times article: https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/

Our energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/07/28/the-worlds-self-organizing-economy-can-be-expected-to-act-strangely-as-energy-supplies-deplete/

SEE PAGE 59 - THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

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Oct 2, 2022·edited Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

Yes, but despite the commom understanding, Central Banks can't "print money", all they can do is create Bank Reserves as an accounting consequence of QE. Bank Reserves do NOT represent liquidity in the system. Only Commercial banks can "print money" which they do every time they initiate a loan - which at present they aren't!

In terms of Bail-ins, people should also understand that if they have deposits in a Bank, the funds are no longer theirs but the Bank's and become an UNSECURED creditor.. Since Bond Holders and holders of other financial instruments ARE secured, depositors are basically at the back of the line. Of course, very few understand this and it wasn't widely advertised - can't think why!

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

Hope you’ve stockpiled some silver and gold coins. Going to be epic if CS fails. Silver will increase by $100s per day until there is no silver for sale because the item to trade for it ($) is worthless.

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Oct 3, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

Clearly, private citizens must pay more tqaxes so the banks can be biled out. Otherwise the banks would collapse and that would mean private citizens lost the money they loaned to the bank in the first place (what, you thought the money in your account was yours?).

Clearly, this is an unforseen one-time occurrence glitch which has never ever happened before and can only be blamed on politicians and not on the bakers and the clans owning the banks.

Clearly.

If they start taxing sarcasm I'm bankrupt.

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Oct 2, 2022·edited Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

There is an alternative to the options they’re presenting however. And it’s been done before. There needs to be a Glass-Steagall style bankruptcy re-organization where commercial banking is split off from investment banking. Only commercial banking activities are insured, while the quadrillion dollar derivatives banking casino and the many merchant banking casino gambling debts are written off because it simply can’t be paid and it’s not legitimate. It has no entitlement to being bailed out.

It was done in 1932, but we can even go back to the time of Solon. At the end of the day, these kinds of problems can be solved with the stroke of a pen. Legitimate debts are written off, honest debts are honoured. The nations commit to new forward-looking projects that are needed not only for today, but for the next generations.

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Oct 2, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com

I’m in the US. If most of my money is tied up in one of those banks, is it best to have it dispersed between several institutions instead of just one?

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I think we need to face the reality the people who pretend to centrally control economies have gotten addicted to debt and money printing.

That can they keep kicking down the road is getting bigger and heavier and they can only keep kicking it for so long.

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Are they trying to tell us something (and taking the piss)

Credit Suisse Group appoints Axel P. Lehmann as new Chairman; António Horta-Osório has resigned

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/media-releases/csg-bod-changes-202201.html

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