42 Comments

Gee, with the events of the past 2 1/2 years it’s almost like this whole thing has been planned....

Expand full comment

How amazing that Covid struck... just as the global economy was again on the precipice towards the end of 2019....

Expand full comment

I put this up FA Hayk Road to Serfdom 2, https://gailhonadle.substack.com/p/fa-hyek-road-to-serfdom-2

There are more Links in the comments, one is on the UK

Expand full comment

More links were added to the comments.

Expand full comment

It's hard to plan when government meddles in markets.

Expand full comment

Well, I guess ordering Marmite from Tesco now for overseas delivery will be worth the postal charges.

Laughing not to cry. Everything happening now is happening to my lifelong friends. If ever there was a time to wish for justice for the innocent and judgment for the guilty.

Expand full comment

Maybe judgement for the guilty could be to feed them Marmite if they hate it?

Expand full comment

Waste the precious sludge of life on the miscreantal hordes? Not hardly.

Expand full comment

MY hubby gets marmite at Indian stores in our Texas city.

Expand full comment

But Tesco. I'll never have Tesco again. Aisles of my dreams. Foretaste of Paradise. Those who mock British food, they ain't had a proper steak and kidney pie from the refrigerated cases. [turns away from her laptop, weeping]

Expand full comment

You know how to treat yourself!

Expand full comment

They've been kicking the debt can down the road for decades; we're now at the end of that road, and the ultra-wealthy who depend on that can continuing down the road don't know what to do.

Expand full comment

They'll start kicking every can they see

Expand full comment

Nicely stated... and yes -- this is just the next phase of the GFC which kicked off in 2007.

For the big picture I highly recommend this analysis from Tim Morgan who was head of research at a global energy trading firm:

THE PERFECT STORM

The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel

https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

Expand full comment

Nitty Gritty Time.

Expand full comment

And let's not forget --- the palliative care that the global economy had been receiving since GFC ... was failing in 2019... and collapse was imminent.

But then like magic - Covid arrived. Hmmmm... any connection?

“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. FT.com https://archive.ph/UUfl2

Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

Expand full comment

Thanks, I've been looking for some info on the 2019 'crash' to write about.

Expand full comment

I've been keeping a 'library' of key articles since my journey began after GFC...

I'll just dump them in a couple of posts... you may find something useful:

The Beginning of the End

JUNE 13, 2003 - There is increasing evidence that massive economic stimulus — monetary, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, and fiscal, thanks to the president and supply-side minded lawmakers — is taking hold. The magnitude of the policy turnaround, which caps a constructive, multi-year reflation process, should overwhelm the economic negatives — including the drag from expensive oil and poor finances at the state- and local-government levels.

Expensive oil and its impact on other energy costs remains a concern.

The current level of U.S. monetary stimulus is massive. Real interest rates have fallen 5.2 percent from December 2000 to March 2003, reaching -1.2 percent. A swing of this magnitude may be historical.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/207227/reversal-fortune-david-malpass

THE PERFECT STORM

The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

HIGH PRICED OIL DESTROYS GROWTH

According to the OECD Economics Department and the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf

HOW HIGH OIL PRICES WILL PERMANENTLY CAP ECONOMIC GROWTH

For most of the last century, cheap oil powered global economic growth. But in the last decade, the price of oil production has quadrupled, and that shift will permanently shackle the growth potential of the world’s economies. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-09-23/how-high-oil-prices-will-permanently-cap-economic-growth

OIL PRODUCERS NEED $100+ OIL

Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11024845/Oil-and-gas-company-debt-soars-to-danger-levels-to-cover-shortfall-in-cash.html

THE END OF CHEAP OIL Global production of conventional oil will begin to decline sooner than most people think, probably within 10 years

Feb 14, 1998 |By Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrre http://dieoff.org/page140.htm (originally appeared in the Scientific American)

WE NEED HIGH OIL PRICES: Marginal oil production costs are heading towards $100/barrel http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/05/02/983171/marginal-oil-production-costs-are-heading-towards-100barrel/

COSTS OF OIL PRODUCTION SKY ROCKET

The marginal cost of the 50 largest oil and gas producers globally increased to US$92/bbl in 2011, an increase of 11% y-o-y and in-line with historical average CAGR growth. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/05/02/983171/marginal-oil-production-costs-are-heading-towards-100barrel/

Oil Discoveries are at record lows https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png

According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html

If there is so much easy oil left, then why are we drilling beneath the ocean, blasting and sucking out the dregs of old wells and steaming oil out of sand?

Here are the break-even oil prices for 13 of the world's biggest producers

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/break-even-oil-prices-for-all-the-major-producers-in-the-world-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Council on Foreign Relations: Saudi Arabia’s Break-Even on Oil is Approaching $120 per barrel

http://www.cfr.org/oil/fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices-uses-abuses-opportunities-improvement/p37275?cid=ex-cgs-oil_breakeven_discussion-levi_use-113015

http://i.cfr.org/content/Breakeven_figure_Saudi_Arabia.jpg

Skip to page 55 : This study by David Korowicz explores the implications of a major financial crisis for the supply-chains that feed us, keep production running and maintain our critical infrastructure. He uses a scenario involving the collapse of the Eurozone to show that increasing socio-economic complexity could rapidly spread irretrievable supply-chain failure across the world. http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf

Oil and gas company debt soars to danger levels to cover shortfall in cash

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11024845/Oil-and-gas-company-debt-soars-to-danger-levels-to-cover-shortfall-in-cash.html

Pentagon bracing for public dissent over climate and energy shocks

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/14/climate-change-energy-shocks-nsa-prism

Expand full comment

Perfect Storm by Tim Morgan provided my 'aha moment' I was trying to work out why the banks violated rule number one - and loaned my to people who they knew could not pay them back... (Liar Loans)....

Tim ties it all together... in a nutshell energy costs were lifting off at the turn of the century so they pumped the housing market to drive prosperity and offset those costs...

He insists the GFC was caused by this.

I still can remember as if it was yesterday - I was in a hotel in Edinburgh .. quite late at night ... and read that document into the wee hours... and it dawned on me -- we are f789ed. There is no way out of this ...

SEE PAGE 59 (then start from P1) - THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

Oil Discoveries are at record lows https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png

Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.

Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.

What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.

Some key points from this Financial Times article: https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/

Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://archive.ph/tjl6J

Our energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/07/28/the-worlds-self-organizing-economy-can-be-expected-to-act-strangely-as-energy-supplies-deplete/

“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. FT.com https://archive.ph/UUfl2

Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html

Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/fed-repo-overnight-operations-level-to-increase-to-120-billion.html Banks did not trust each other - similar situation when Lehman collapsed

A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE AND PANDEMIC SIMULATION https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

Expand full comment

They said goodbye to the Queen of Corona and traded their Golden Whistle for a woodland soldier with a broken left foot. Be seeing you and Hoolio down at Gail's.

Expand full comment

OFW needs to remain online between articles... things are moving fast now

Expand full comment

Results matter more than intentions. Yet our society refuses to hold leadership to the only standard leaders should be held to: their effectiveness (which is measured in results). Why do so many policies exist that continuously have bad results?

This problem is easily solvable. We need to be a results-driven society once again. Intentions irrelevant, we need to demand results with receipts.

https://joshketry.substack.com/p/we-should-value-results-more-than?r=7oa9d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
October 12, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

On the upside the Government can do two-for-one split on the currency and they'd all accept it.

Or go whole hog and do a two for one split on numbers so one is now two and two is now four. The chaos would be a side bonus.

Expand full comment

Long view... All money is just an emotion, a belief system.

The truth is people work so hard to make things for each other from wheat to quantum computing lasers.

The impact of the internet and technology is still having an outsized effect. People can give goods and services like never before. The hockey stick of the 1000 year economy.

Personally I don't see it slowing down. Any reversal will be strictly temporary.

Expand full comment

Even though it's a tired comparison, I would say we've become Weimar but that was just one country and not the whole world all at once.

I fully expected sales of hockey padding and Matt black spray paint to skyrocket, but there won't be any V8 interceptors.

Expand full comment

Are they expecting ... the Bossche Mutation soon?

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579919049676713984

Just as the global economy implodes?

Expand full comment

They will need something to cover the implosion. But what will it be this time? Your bets are on 'pandemic' again?

Expand full comment

Good question.

Things I think we know:

- the next shoe was dropping in the GFC that started in 2007 -- in Q4 2019 - the reverse repos were spiking big time as they did with Lehman - the stimulus was no longer driving growth

- Covid arrives in Q1 2020 - this allows for the mother of all stimulus -- without spooking the hordes (it's temporary -- just gotta get past covid)

- The injections are intended to do harm - as in they are attempting to generate a deadly, highly contagious mutation.

- Bossche was expecting this to emerge by summer - we have had plenty of mutations but nothing very deadly

- in the meantime the spectre of collapse hovers over the global economy -- and it now appears to be imminent.

- killing a significant number of people results in the collapse of the supply chain and starvation for survivors - so a cull gets us to a bad place

What I am wondering is --- is their extermination plan failing --- keep in mind nobody has tried to conjure up a deadly highly contagious virus before -- it's a numbers game -- you get that shit into as many people as possible so that each one becomes a variant factory -- and you wait to hit the jackpot of death.

They keep throwing stuff at it to encourage the mutations - Paxlovid ... nasal sprays ... extra strength boosters... they open up the world to ensure optimum spread ...

But still -- no devil covid... there are some anxious moments in the HQ right now...

And now we are seeing what appears to be a financial problem without a solution -- keep raising rates the system blows... revert to lower rates ...the system blows.... this have to be very desperate moments in the HQ...

What happens if they see the financial system is gonna blow up ... along with it the supply chains (mass murder mass rape mass cannibalism will definitely result if this happens - hell on Earth).

I am wondering ... do they have a Plan B ... do they initiate extreme lockdowns (see China) blaming them on the threat of a 'new extremely dangerous variant'... do they impose martial law... do they tell the hordes that food will be delivered but it doesn't come -- they weaken and die... without causing too much trouble (show them photos of crisis actors dying on the streets... they'll be happy to stay locked down).

The MSM is hinting at nuclear war... we are told countries are stockpiling radiation meds... do they also unleash nuclear arsenals on the world to kill as many as possible to reduce the suffering when the supply chains go?

Then we are seeing this candy-coloured Fentanyl in circulation --- does that end of life drug get widely distributed to let people opt out of the suffering when they see there is no way out?

Who can know what they are thinking..

We know that they are injecting the military - killing and maiming babies... why would they do this ... unless they are certain that we have reached the end of the road... and they are going to die anyway...

There is most definitely something very frightening happening that they are not telling us about -- that has motivated them to commit themselves and us to a suicidal course.

We cannot look to explanations based on how the world has functioned up until now -- none of what is happening makes sense if you work off of that paradigm.

This is why I am left to conclude that we are being exterminated.

The only rationale I can think of that would justify this -- is that we are running low on affordable energy .... there is no solution for that ... this would explain the lack of resistance to what is happening... the top people involved have been briefed...

Recall early on when there was that leak out of the PM's office in Canada -- they denied it was a leak but it predicted everything that happened in Canada in the months after the leak.

When the politicians tried to oppose the coming draconian lockdowns etc... Trudeaus basically said --- this is for the greater good -- the decision has been made -- we need you to play ball on this.

Of course he only told them what they needed to know in order to execute on the restrictions ... he did not provide them with the end game.

Nobody leaks the end game. Nobody. What's the point?

Instead we are fed all sorts of nonsense to distract us ... such as The Great Reset... or some sort of control mechanism in the vaccines ... etc etc... that's typical Ministry of Truth stuff... to keep people off the real story.

One thing seems certain - the end game is approaching ... we've got a twin crisis now - raging energy costs in Europe -- and a financial meltdown threatening.

Do we make it to Christmas?

-

Expand full comment

If you are so convince of the above, what have you done to prepare? Or do you think the future is so bleak you are just having fun until it blows!?

Expand full comment

As many people are waking up to the fact that something very dangerous is emerging from the swamp, the visceral response is to prep.

The more I have thought about this I believe that the PR Team has conditioned us to do this using their primary tool - the MSM. I have not had a TV for nearly 15 yrs but I am aware of the extensive programming that promotes doomsday prepping. I do not think this is an accident.

I was visiting my brother maybe 10 yrs ago and he of course has TV ... and they were watching one of these shows (could have been Hunger Games - not sure as I left the room to read a book after about 5 minutes). Anyways... they appeared to be well past the collapse phase... and the characters looked as if they'd just come from an LL Bean photo shoot -- perfect new clean clothes... freshly showered ... the latest hair styles....

I wondered out loud how they were to accomplish such a feat and was shouted down with 'there would loads of nice new stuff in the shops still!'... Scenes of Black Friday mayhem flashed across my mind... and how quickly the mobs would loot everything ... but I remained quiet an retreated to another room to read... thinking .. the PR Team has done a great job ... for those who begin to panic as they realize something is wrong ... get them to buy into the great adventure -- doomsday prepping!

I bought in -- big time -- we emigrated to prepper paradise - NZ... James Cameron -- Theil and many others also bought in. After blowing lots of $$$ getting in we proceeded to set up in a rural area near Nelson...

Then one day I realized that although many of my neighbours were somewhat self sufficient producing food --- many were not. Was I going to shoot them when they came to the farm gate asking me to share? What about the kids...

Then I thought about Nelson - 50,000 people --- they know where the food is when the supermarkets go empty -- it's a 30 minute drive or day's walk...

Cracks were quickly forming and awareness of the futility of it all began to seep in.

But the final blow came when I realized the danger of spent fuel ponds in the event of collapse. After extensive research I concluded that nobody gets out alive -- these things cannot be shut down and when the water boils off they release toxic stuff that does not degrade for centuries. This stuff will get into the jet stream and ocean and spread far and wide... it will get into the food I'd eat (if I could fight off the hordes...) the water I drink... the air I breath.

In short -- I realized I was f789ed.

Throw in the fact that even if one could survive all of this ... it ain't no Little House on the Prairie - and it most definitely ain't no 'Hunger Games'... it would be a grim existence (try chopping down a tree splitting it and hauling it without petrol assistance...) It would be brutal life (I've read a few books on pioneers in Canada - they were often on the verge of starvation - and they KNEW how to live like that...)

We unloaded the farm .. moved to Queenstown and although I do have a small garden ... that's about it --I spend more of my time biking skiing and playing hockey...

And waiting....

After GFC although we did not initially understand the why -- we did believe we were on borrowed time so I stepped back and semi retired in in my early 40's... and travelled extensively... the last trip was in Sept > Dec 2019...

I did alert some of my mates who were down in the gold mines toiling away that it was pointless.. but I was dismissed as a chicken little. Most of them remain oblivious unaware of the sword that is about to come down on their necks (and they all have the latest boosters... one has heart damage)....

Only one has had an epiphany and has indicated that 'once we get through this I will do what you did' ... I hate to break it to him but he left it too late .... we won't get through this.

I imagine I come across as rather sanguine about this dire situation ... but my initial reaction was one of disbelief... shock... dismay ... despair.. and panic... I've had over a decade to process what's happening and transitioned to acceptance.

It helps that we decided early on not to have any children... I imagine that would make this much more difficult

One rather amusing anecdote -- I had been very closely following the financial situation in 2019... and it seemed as the central banks were losing control.... then covid hit...

Initially I did not connect the two .. but within a few weeks my antennae went up ... why didn't Covid spread across China when people left Wuhan for Chinese New Year? What was that man who apparently fell dead from Covid on a street in Wuhan doing walking the streets if he was deathly ill? And so on.... Something was not right.

In March I was in contact with one of the sub authors of Great Barrington - an epidemiologist -- this was I think before the Declaration -- we had two or three lengthy conversations... during one of them he informed me that he had analysed the data and was certain that Covid was no more of a problem than a bad flu.... the projections out of the UK were all wrong...

The light went on and I said -- the buggers - they are putting us down. He said what? I said - they are putting us down .. that's what this is all about ... I am sure he thought I was off my rocker...

I don't expect to do any more adventure trips ... but I've refocused and embraced activities, particularly the cycling... I continue to read extensively ... so I am still having fun... I try to limit my contact with the CovIDIOTS... that keeps the stress levels to a minimum...

And being a curious person ... I find it fascinating to follow the story as it moves along .. trying to interpret what the PR Team is up to ... waiting to see how it ends.

I wouldn't trade this for being born a boomer and having already died during more 'normal' times ... I am a huge fan of history and it looks like I am going to be around to experience the event since the beginning of man. I'd likely have a much different perspective on this if I was in my 20's

Expand full comment

Good article. Will be linking tomorrow @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/

Have always linked financial news. The sad part of it is, most sheeple don't pay attention to it. They will read all the covid links which is fine, but most don't realize that the finacial side of the "Big Picture" is much more important!!!!!

Expand full comment

"A risk to financial stability"

Unlike the vast and endless money printing the BoE and government's of any colour have been engaged in. That's all fine and dandy.

Expand full comment

It may be that the drastic BofE action is the right thing, something has to change that's for sure. The current money printing and artificially low interest rates (current debt is not so much eye watering as almost unimaginable) have to stop sometime unless there's another narrative at play and the idea is to collapse global financial systems intentionally .... in order to "reset" the system and usher in CBDCs perhaps?

Expand full comment

When you are the person who prints the money and you use that money to “buy” something intangible like government bonds which are in effect “futures” funded on the back of the peoples wealth you are in effect just kicking the can down the road with money you have just printed into existence 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

It’s like owning a sweetshop and buying you own sweets and putting them in the larder for later

Expand full comment

It's the 1920s all over again.

Expand full comment

“Initially, UK bond prices dropped on the BoE’s intervention but that didn’t last long and they quickly reversed direction.”

You mean bond yields dropped ( not prices)

Expand full comment