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In the UK, mRNA vaccines have failed. Why do I think this? Let’s take a look at some graphs.
First of all cases.
The latest 7 day average (as of 22 March 2022) was 85,606 cases. Compare this to the same date last year and we get 5,489 cases. 15.5 times more cases this year with 72% of the population fully vaccinated as compared with 3% this time last year.
Maybe it’s all the testing we’re doing?
Nope, the latest 7 day average from 18 March 2022 shows number of tests at 731,212. The same date last year had 1,323,724 tests reported. So approximately half the amount of tests were done this year but with 15.5 times more cases.
But but but, the vaccines were never meant to stop transmission, just prevent serious disease and death. Ok, let’s look at hospital admissions.
As of 18 March the 7 day average for patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 was 2,053. The same date last year had an average of 420 patients admitted. So roughly five times as many patients this year.
Surely the vaccines are stopping people dying at least?
The latest 7 day average shows 119 people dying compared with 78 last year. However, as with cases and hospitalisations, the trend was very firmly down and by the end of the month deaths were in the low 30s. Currently, the trend for all three statistics is up so the comparisons will be even worse in a few weeks time.
Some parts of the country are almost worse than the highest peak we have had to date (in January 2021).
In the South West of England, hospital admissions are at 247 (7 day average) when this time last year they were on 18. 13.7 times more admissions this year. The highest they have ever reached is 301 on 12 January 2021 when less than one percent of the population was fully vaccinated.
Some might argue that the number of deaths or hospitalisations compared with cases shows that the vaccines are working. However, in my book, if there are more deaths and hospitalisations overall, then the vaccines are just not working. But but but Omicron, BA.2, freedom day. No, the vaccines have failed. Quick let’s tell them to “live with the virus” so nobody notices.
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Game Set & MATCH
all of my deranged acquaintances, most of whom are in the HC field, say "when you adjust for cases the vax is working" (as you note)... I don't think we can completely dismiss that, the answer I give is:
a) then also need to adjust for lower CFR of omicron
b) also need to adjust for vax injury for people who did not need vax (under 60)
I usually propose a compromise thought experiment: if we offered vax to 60+ only, we would have gotten the best of all worlds
then I get canceled (true story)