The inflation is mild, short lived and the economy is expected to recover quickly due to Sunak.
It would have been so much worse had you remained with Truss.
The effectiveness of Sunak was always expected to wane over time.
We never said Sunak was effective against bond yield spike. In any case, the current spike is not the same as the previous spike. As you can see it’s changed over time. This current spike is milder.
Sunak remains safe and effective at preventing serious economic consequences.
Don’t even think of trying an alternative treatment like Labour, you’re not a horse.
Funny. I had been watching the 30 gilt yields for a while too. The last time they touched 5% Truss was rolled. Some pension funds were forced to sell 30 yr gilts until the BoE or someone else intervened to bring yields back down. It's looking very close to getting to the 5% again. Perhaps it will be Sunaks time to be rolled?
The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), which is based on asking rents, meaning advertised rents that landlords hope to get when a tenant signs the lease, jumped month-to-month by 0.6% in April, the steepest increase since August, after having already jumped 0.5% in March, and 0.3% in February, to a new record of $2,018. Annualized, the increase in April translates into a jump of +7.4%.
This is really bad news on the inflation front. But it’s not a surprise. It confirms what the biggest landlords in the US told us in their earnings calls, that they got 6% to 8% rent increases both on lease renewals and on new lease signings in April; and it confirms what the rent factors in CPI for April told us, that actual rents paid by all tenants jumped by 0.5% in April from March, and by over 8% year-over-year.
Last month I bought some gravel... the guy says that'll be 70 bucks... I says ... wasn't it something like 55 bucks when I was here less than a year ago? Sounds about right he says... the supplier has been increasing it 9% every 6 months....
'What cannot continue... will stop' Herb Stein (by stop ... I'd say it's going to implode)
Here's some useful info ... did you know Herb Stein the economist is the father of Ben Stein -- the teacher in the movie Ferris Buehler's Day Off. True.
And people will still claim progressivism is the answer - we just need to tax the rich more and the government needs to spend more money. In the US Trump and the current congress will be blamed. Biden and Dems are pure as the wind driven snow. The thing about supply and demand the rules never change.
I disagree that these yelds are high - on the contrary, they are still well below the rate of inflation. Yields need to and will be higher for longer.
UK Glit panic last year was caused by a wave of bond sales causing margin calls and forced selling which resulted in a feedback loop. It isn't the first time the bond vigilantes have made an appearance and won't be the last.
The coup against Liz Truss by Andrew Bailey and the Bank of England, in order to install the bloke that LOST the Conservative Leadership contest to her, should have enraged the nation. But I learned in 2020 that Britian is a nation of fools.
They will have no choice but to push even harder... and harder... that will not stop inflation ... because the inflation is caused by the deep depletion of affordable energy ....
The only way to fix that is to find more affordable energy to burn.... the thing is... there is no more cheap stuff to find -- and even the expensive stuff... shale ... is in decline https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
So far the markets are not panicking ... they believe that the Central Banks will be able to tame this raging inflation with the next rate hike... or if not then the one after that... ya there will be some paoin but we'll survive is what the markets believe...
At some point the markets will realize that the CBs are pushing on a string ... pushing really hard... but the inflation continues to rage..... and then they will lose their shit.
We are not looking at a crash in the markets... we are looking at a total collapse ... as in the end of the markets. We burned up all the cheap energy -- you cannot reset jack shit once it collapses.
Collapse = 8 Billion souls ... on the streets -- very pissed off -- and hungry.... they'll be looking for people to blame -- bankers, politicians, the wealthy... and they know where they are.
But they will also be fighting over the bits of food that are to be had -- cuz the global supply chain will collapse. The industrial farming complex will vapourize.
There will quickly be no policing -- no military... It's gonna get real ugly real fast... murder. rape. disease. cannibalism. The Gates of Hell will open.
But that won't happen. Because cooler heads will prevail and phase two of the binary poison will be unleashed on the world --- this will happen before the markets realize the Central Banks are pushing on a string.
They are already pushing on a string but this has not yet registered.... we are now on borrowed time.
They don't want to cut this too close - cuz when the markets turn on them ... they turn as quickly as it takes for traders to push a few keys and panic sell everything... when that happens there is not stopping the outcome.
That is why this was released earlier in the week:
In a meeting of the World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday, director-general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus sounded an alarm that the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over.
“The threat of another variant emerging that causes new surges of disease and death remains,” Tedros said. “And the threat of another pathogen emerging with even deadlier potential remains.”
After making all your life choices based on this scenario, is there a bit of you that wants this to happen? What if it never does? What if there is just a slow transition?
There is zero doubt in my mind - we are at the end of the road on cheap energy.
Therefore we are at the end of civilization.
And yes - I do want them to complete the extermination.
If they fail the outcome will be beyond horrific.
Why else do you think every leader and institution on the planet is supporting the injection of this substance into billions of humans?
They know - they absolutely know - that it causes mutations - that it increases the victim's chances of getting covid - and dying from covid. They know about all the brutal side effects.
Yet they continue to support it.
There must be a reason for this. The reason is -- they prefer this outcome to one of 8 billion ripping each other to pieces.
As do I.
So you betcha I hope they are able to complete the extermination before the financial system collapses.
Question:
They have offset surging energy costs for two decades --- with epic amounts of stimulus including record low interest rates... inflation has been raging and the response has been to increase the cost of money by pushing inflation rates higher -- hoping that would stop the inflation.
It is not. Inflation continues at an unsustainable rate.
The response -- continue to increase interest rates.
The entire financial system is insolvent as their bond holdings have collapsed in value as interest rates have roughly tripled. But the Central Banks continue to pile on higher rates.
Because they have no choice. To reverse course will invite hyperinflation. That is a certainty.
I put this question a a friend who is the principal of a small hedge fund - he agrees with the analysis and when asked how do the Central Banks get out of this? His response was - I cannot see a way out - all we can do is hope they have a way to kick the can some more.
Standard government response:
Trust the experts (IMF).
Sunak is 94% effective against inflation.
You should be glad to have received the Sunak.
The inflation is mild, short lived and the economy is expected to recover quickly due to Sunak.
It would have been so much worse had you remained with Truss.
The effectiveness of Sunak was always expected to wane over time.
We never said Sunak was effective against bond yield spike. In any case, the current spike is not the same as the previous spike. As you can see it’s changed over time. This current spike is milder.
Sunak remains safe and effective at preventing serious economic consequences.
Don’t even think of trying an alternative treatment like Labour, you’re not a horse.
Brilliant!
Funny. I had been watching the 30 gilt yields for a while too. The last time they touched 5% Truss was rolled. Some pension funds were forced to sell 30 yr gilts until the BoE or someone else intervened to bring yields back down. It's looking very close to getting to the 5% again. Perhaps it will be Sunaks time to be rolled?
Wasn't she only in office for like a week or something? How can Sunak and Hunt legitimately tag her for all the problems?
Do Sunak and Hunt EVER do anything "legitimately"?
“Use less, Pay more, you whining deplorable, expendable, oh yea otherwise known as tax paying citizens.
Inflation ... thar she blows!
The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), which is based on asking rents, meaning advertised rents that landlords hope to get when a tenant signs the lease, jumped month-to-month by 0.6% in April, the steepest increase since August, after having already jumped 0.5% in March, and 0.3% in February, to a new record of $2,018. Annualized, the increase in April translates into a jump of +7.4%.
This is really bad news on the inflation front. But it’s not a surprise. It confirms what the biggest landlords in the US told us in their earnings calls, that they got 6% to 8% rent increases both on lease renewals and on new lease signings in April; and it confirms what the rent factors in CPI for April told us, that actual rents paid by all tenants jumped by 0.5% in April from March, and by over 8% year-over-year.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/22/rent-inflation-re-accelerates-to-red-hot-all-three-now-agree-zillow-asking-rents-what-big-landlords-said-and-actual-rents-tracked-by-cpi/
Last month I bought some gravel... the guy says that'll be 70 bucks... I says ... wasn't it something like 55 bucks when I was here less than a year ago? Sounds about right he says... the supplier has been increasing it 9% every 6 months....
'What cannot continue... will stop' Herb Stein (by stop ... I'd say it's going to implode)
Here's some useful info ... did you know Herb Stein the economist is the father of Ben Stein -- the teacher in the movie Ferris Buehler's Day Off. True.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/24/inflation-dishes-out-another-nasty-surprise-all-heck-breaks-loose-in-uk-services-cpi-core-cpi-with-scary-monthly-spikes-multi-decade-highs/
Yields going up in response to inflation.
And people will still claim progressivism is the answer - we just need to tax the rich more and the government needs to spend more money. In the US Trump and the current congress will be blamed. Biden and Dems are pure as the wind driven snow. The thing about supply and demand the rules never change.
She's got a great pension out of it hasn't she and she smirked off down Downing Street?
I disagree that these yelds are high - on the contrary, they are still well below the rate of inflation. Yields need to and will be higher for longer.
UK Glit panic last year was caused by a wave of bond sales causing margin calls and forced selling which resulted in a feedback loop. It isn't the first time the bond vigilantes have made an appearance and won't be the last.
Why I've been stocking up on canned mackerel- loaded with DHA:
https://romanshapoval.substack.com/p/the-best-brainfood
Is it time to get out of britain? If so, and go where?
It's happening everywhere.
Summary
The press conference with Jay Powell and the Fed minutes have made it clear - no rate cuts in 2023.
The minutes also made it clear that more hikes may be coming.
The bond market has now removed all rate cuts in 2023 and is now pricing in more hikes.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607398-more-fed-rate-hikes-coming
She's got a great pension out of it hasn't she and she smirked off down Downing Street?
The coup against Liz Truss by Andrew Bailey and the Bank of England, in order to install the bloke that LOST the Conservative Leadership contest to her, should have enraged the nation. But I learned in 2020 that Britian is a nation of fools.
They are pushing ... gently... on a string:
Fed’s Favored Core PCE Price Index Re-Accelerates, Driven by Services, Motor Vehicles: Inflation Stuck on High, Shifts from Item to Item https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/26/feds-favored-core-pce-price-index-re-accelerates-driven-by-services-motor-vehicles-inflation-stuck-on-high-shifts-from-item-to-item/
Looks like they will try to push a little harder:
Fed Signals Another Rate Hike Is Coming!
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/fed-signals-another-rate-hike-is-coming-what-does-that-mean-for-commodities-1348152
They will have no choice but to push even harder... and harder... that will not stop inflation ... because the inflation is caused by the deep depletion of affordable energy ....
The only way to fix that is to find more affordable energy to burn.... the thing is... there is no more cheap stuff to find -- and even the expensive stuff... shale ... is in decline https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
So far the markets are not panicking ... they believe that the Central Banks will be able to tame this raging inflation with the next rate hike... or if not then the one after that... ya there will be some paoin but we'll survive is what the markets believe...
At some point the markets will realize that the CBs are pushing on a string ... pushing really hard... but the inflation continues to rage..... and then they will lose their shit.
We are not looking at a crash in the markets... we are looking at a total collapse ... as in the end of the markets. We burned up all the cheap energy -- you cannot reset jack shit once it collapses.
Collapse = 8 Billion souls ... on the streets -- very pissed off -- and hungry.... they'll be looking for people to blame -- bankers, politicians, the wealthy... and they know where they are.
But they will also be fighting over the bits of food that are to be had -- cuz the global supply chain will collapse. The industrial farming complex will vapourize.
There will quickly be no policing -- no military... It's gonna get real ugly real fast... murder. rape. disease. cannibalism. The Gates of Hell will open.
But that won't happen. Because cooler heads will prevail and phase two of the binary poison will be unleashed on the world --- this will happen before the markets realize the Central Banks are pushing on a string.
They are already pushing on a string but this has not yet registered.... we are now on borrowed time.
They don't want to cut this too close - cuz when the markets turn on them ... they turn as quickly as it takes for traders to push a few keys and panic sell everything... when that happens there is not stopping the outcome.
That is why this was released earlier in the week:
In a meeting of the World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday, director-general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus sounded an alarm that the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over.
“The threat of another variant emerging that causes new surges of disease and death remains,” Tedros said. “And the threat of another pathogen emerging with even deadlier potential remains.”
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/the-next-pandemic-even-deadlier-than-covid-is-coming-warns-who/news-story/20be6a458bf55b01143d752b2b0fa1d6
They are now locked and loaded.
After making all your life choices based on this scenario, is there a bit of you that wants this to happen? What if it never does? What if there is just a slow transition?
There is zero doubt in my mind - we are at the end of the road on cheap energy.
Therefore we are at the end of civilization.
And yes - I do want them to complete the extermination.
If they fail the outcome will be beyond horrific.
Why else do you think every leader and institution on the planet is supporting the injection of this substance into billions of humans?
They know - they absolutely know - that it causes mutations - that it increases the victim's chances of getting covid - and dying from covid. They know about all the brutal side effects.
Yet they continue to support it.
There must be a reason for this. The reason is -- they prefer this outcome to one of 8 billion ripping each other to pieces.
As do I.
So you betcha I hope they are able to complete the extermination before the financial system collapses.
Question:
They have offset surging energy costs for two decades --- with epic amounts of stimulus including record low interest rates... inflation has been raging and the response has been to increase the cost of money by pushing inflation rates higher -- hoping that would stop the inflation.
It is not. Inflation continues at an unsustainable rate.
The response -- continue to increase interest rates.
The entire financial system is insolvent as their bond holdings have collapsed in value as interest rates have roughly tripled. But the Central Banks continue to pile on higher rates.
Because they have no choice. To reverse course will invite hyperinflation. That is a certainty.
I put this question a a friend who is the principal of a small hedge fund - he agrees with the analysis and when asked how do the Central Banks get out of this? His response was - I cannot see a way out - all we can do is hope they have a way to kick the can some more.
Can you see a way out of this?
I do - I have outlined it here https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220