Should we be nervous about what the New Year will bring?
Comparing the S&P 500 chart from the year of the financial crash (2008) with current trends seems to suggest so.
Or will they manage to kick the can down the road even longer?
Which inflation busting, recession proof assets are you invested in? The war in Ukraine has certainly helped the defence sector - Lockheed Martin up 20%, Raytheon 6% and BAE 39%. I bet they won’t be pushing for peace anytime soon!
Inflation combined with rate rises indicates that 2023 will be a rough year. Central banks are likely to opt for economic destruction over inflation. It’s their one job so can’t be seen to be failing for much longer.
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Dec 20, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com
Agreed. Equity markets remain very overvalued compared to historical levels and clearly have not yet priced in a global recession. Which IMHO is coming despite all the sweet talk from Central Banks and Governments. The S&P could fall up to 50% from here.
Dec 20, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com
I am, where I can, investing what little money I have in assets that do not represent a liability (or require the performance) of someone else -- that is, I’m long in tangible, non-financial assets with “intrinsic” value.
Same here. The worry I have, in the long term, is that they will catch on to such investments as a way for us to be independent, and will come up with ways to tax or legislate these intrinsic assets to oblivion. Here in the UK housing is the biggest asset, and I’ve been following reports on how environmental legislation may be used to make houses unsaleable and hence worthless, by demanding such stringent eco-standards that most older properties will fail these. Not in the next few years, but maybe next decade. But then the multi-generational effect will have taken hold: nothing for our children left to inherit.
I always knew and accepted 401k was funny money. I got irritated 20 years ago about a flat fee that was large relative to the $ in my acct. I called to ask and fidelity called it a quarterly audit flat fee that varied in amount from year to year. I researched 401k laws and read a white paper that describe how vulnerable our retirement acct to the whims. I have only 401k. In contrast Congress is not tied to 401k system rather guaranteed their pensions and allowed to decide on these injections too. Why if they're not vested in the 401k system, would congress care what happens in the 401k laws?
Yes, that I know, but since raising the rate is one way central banks use to dampen inflation and the vast majority of households have geared their finances (ever since the last "free market" hiccup) to minimal or zero payment of loans due to low rates, I figure it would make a heap of sense for those to actually start paying off /before/ a rate hike.
Last time it looked like this in Sweden was in the early 1990s, and the rates went from about 5.5% to 500% overnight.
You can imagine what happened to middle-income families who have a mortgaged house, car bought on monthly installments, and all the appliances and gubbins on a buy-lease.
Most people, almost all in fact, end and start each month with close to zero money in their spendings account and don't bother with a savings account (our taxes make that the worst possible option - even worse than keeping the money as cash at home!) or any kind of monthly investment plan.
They are instead betting on rates staying abnormally low despite 5%/year being the historical normal for Sweden.
Peroally, I find it disheartening that we've cheered western economy being used as a slave's yoke and chain, the way the "live in debt, just borrow more"-lifestyle has been made the normal since the 1980s.
I am quite worried that my life’s savings may not remain the value they currently are.
Some people say ‘inflation is theft’ and I agree with this in light of the reckless spending and money printing governments are doing.
10% annual inflation for 10 years means a dollar you save today will be worth $0.38 in 2032.
And until covid, the money supply was doubling every 11 years -- about 9% real inflation. Since covid it's obviously gotten worse.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
All a designed part of the roll out (“pilot” programs already started in some countries) for digital currency / slavery....
Agreed. Equity markets remain very overvalued compared to historical levels and clearly have not yet priced in a global recession. Which IMHO is coming despite all the sweet talk from Central Banks and Governments. The S&P could fall up to 50% from here.
I am, where I can, investing what little money I have in assets that do not represent a liability (or require the performance) of someone else -- that is, I’m long in tangible, non-financial assets with “intrinsic” value.
For various reasons.
Same here. The worry I have, in the long term, is that they will catch on to such investments as a way for us to be independent, and will come up with ways to tax or legislate these intrinsic assets to oblivion. Here in the UK housing is the biggest asset, and I’ve been following reports on how environmental legislation may be used to make houses unsaleable and hence worthless, by demanding such stringent eco-standards that most older properties will fail these. Not in the next few years, but maybe next decade. But then the multi-generational effect will have taken hold: nothing for our children left to inherit.
That’s almost certainly the plan.
government can basically render anything useless.
Remember these:
-owning privately gold was declared illegal
-killing a pig for food was declared illegal
People believe they can avoid tyranny.
Like what?
Have a Happy and peaceful Christmas, and an even Happier and prosperous New Year!
(From Over Here)
And to you!
Their plan was ALWAYS to inflate away the debt. Plan accordingly!!
Every time!
How would one plan accordingly?
Buy land if you can, become a minimalist, stockpile!
I always knew and accepted 401k was funny money. I got irritated 20 years ago about a flat fee that was large relative to the $ in my acct. I called to ask and fidelity called it a quarterly audit flat fee that varied in amount from year to year. I researched 401k laws and read a white paper that describe how vulnerable our retirement acct to the whims. I have only 401k. In contrast Congress is not tied to 401k system rather guaranteed their pensions and allowed to decide on these injections too. Why if they're not vested in the 401k system, would congress care what happens in the 401k laws?
Every fund in my 401k has lost at least 10% last year. Except for one bond fund that grew at 1.9%. The choices are awful
So would it make more sense to pay off loans (house, car et cetera) than to invest or save?
As long interest rate is not too high paying back loan is actually not beneficial.
Yes, that I know, but since raising the rate is one way central banks use to dampen inflation and the vast majority of households have geared their finances (ever since the last "free market" hiccup) to minimal or zero payment of loans due to low rates, I figure it would make a heap of sense for those to actually start paying off /before/ a rate hike.
Last time it looked like this in Sweden was in the early 1990s, and the rates went from about 5.5% to 500% overnight.
You can imagine what happened to middle-income families who have a mortgaged house, car bought on monthly installments, and all the appliances and gubbins on a buy-lease.
Most people, almost all in fact, end and start each month with close to zero money in their spendings account and don't bother with a savings account (our taxes make that the worst possible option - even worse than keeping the money as cash at home!) or any kind of monthly investment plan.
They are instead betting on rates staying abnormally low despite 5%/year being the historical normal for Sweden.
Peroally, I find it disheartening that we've cheered western economy being used as a slave's yoke and chain, the way the "live in debt, just borrow more"-lifestyle has been made the normal since the 1980s.
If you are in debt, you own nothing.