ICU Statistics for Vaccinated versus Unvaccinated

and further insight into the missing patients from a previous article

This article is a follow up to a previous one looking at whether the double jabbed had been removed from the ICU statistics. These are reports on critically ill patients with COVID-19 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, produced by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC).

In my previous article I identified over 1,000 patients missing from the table which compares vaccinated ICU patients versus unvaccinated. It seems whoever compiles the report has taken my (or whoever else has notified them) concerns on board as they have included more information, as to the patients listed and updated the definitions as to whom is included in each group, in their latest report.

With the updated definitions it seems that I was wrong to conclude the missing patients were from the two dose <14 days group. These are included in the one dose group. However, there are still 972 missing patients that need accounting for.

The report includes 11,431 patients admitted to critical care in England between 1 May 2021 and 15 December 2021. For various reasons (no NHS number, under 18 etc), a number of these patients are whittled down to 11,131. These are patients who have confirmed COVID-19, either AT or AFTER admission. When comparing vaccination status, however, only 10,141 are successfully linked to a positive COVID-19 test between 28 days before and up to 2 days after admissions to critical care.

The rest of the report references all the 11,431 patients, so why does this one section, comparing vaccination status, remove 972 patients and which ones?

Looking at the definitions above, the only patients who could have been removed are those who contract the disease 2 days + after admission.

Why are 8.5% of critical care patients in the report being removed from this one section comparing vaccination status and how would it change the statistics if they were included? If correct, are 8.5% of critical care patients actually getting COVID-19 whilst in ICU?

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The percentage of unvaccinated individuals in ICU dropped to 47% in October 2021 but has now risen to 61% (data to mid December). It would be helpful to have a further breakdown of the data showing ages, outcomes etc by vaccination status, as well as the reason for the missing patients above, to try and understand why there has been the increase.

Just out of interest, in general, when comparing the unvaccinated and vaccinated groups against the admissions in general, the unvaccinated group are younger, more ethnically diverse and from more deprived areas. The unvaccinated group were also less likely to be immunocompromised or have any severe comorbidities.

As I have mentioned before, a major factor in whether you end up in ICU is wealth. The graph below shows, compared with the general population (20% for each group), the percentage of each group that make up the total in ICU. So for the wealthiest 20% of the population, they only make up 11.1% that end up in ICU, whilst in the lowest 20%, they make up 32.1% who succumb to the same fate. This could be to do with the least wealthy being the least likely to be vaccinated. However, it is equally as likely to do with their diet, their stress and anxiety levels, their general health and living conditions etc etc.

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Other observations from the report include:

• Number of admissions with myocardial infarction and trauma are much lower in 2020 and 2021 compared with the previous four years, whilst strokes and self-harm were at similar levels;

• Viral pneumonia (influenza) has still all but disappeared;

• A massive increase in currently and recently pregnant women in critical care compared with last year (See chart below);