Are the Double Jabbed Removed from ICU Statistics to make Unvaccinated Numbers Higher?

Debunking some of the recent headlines

*** This articles has now been updated with further information here ***

Headlines like the ones above appeared in all the British newspapers over the past few days, so I decided to take a closer look. The articles based their figures on a new study from ICNARC (Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre) which was released on Christmas Eve and can be read here

It is a thorough and interesting report and as others have pointed out in the past, it confirms that ICUs aren’t 90% filled with unvaccinated patients. The report states that, in November, 48% of ICU patients were unvaccinated, down from 75% in May 2021. However, 48% is still a high number (as only 10% of the adult population is unvaccinated), so I tried to look at the numbers behind these percentages.

The report logged data for 12,668 critically ill patients, with COVID-19, either at or after admission to critical care from 1 May 2021 to date. A flow chart for the admissions is below.

To determine how many of these are unvaccinated, table 16 in the report separates critically ill patients by vaccination status from 1 May to 15 November. 5,065 of these were unvaccinated, 377 had a single dose and 3151 had two doses (includes patients that have received three doses or a booster dose). In total this comes to 8,593 patients listed by vaccination status. This is much less than the 12,668 logged above, so why the difference?

Firstly, the whole report includes ICU patients to date, whilst table 16 only goes to 15 November. To find how many patients were admitted by month I had to look at the underlying data. From 1 May until the end of October there were 9,512 critically ill patients admitted and in November another 1,952. As table 16 only goes up to 15 November I divided 1,952 by 2 (976) and added that to 9,512 to get the total amount of patients that should be in the table (10,488). 10,488 - 8,593 still equates to 1,895 patients that are missing from the table.

In the introduction section it says data is only available for England. Looking at the admissions by area tells us that around 7% come from Northern Ireland and Wales. Seven percent of 10,488 is 734, so removing these patients from the total still leaves 9,754. A total amount of missing patients of 9,754 - 8,593 = 1,161.

Why are 1,161 patients not reported on table 16? It could be that their vaccination status was unknown? Maybe a small amount of patients had unknown vaccination status but not over 1,000, this is too high a number. As the vaccine rollout in England was undertaken by the NHS, almost everybody has a NHS number and is registered on a central system. So what else could it be?

Delving into the definitions page may give us a clue.

Based on knowledge that it takes 2-3 weeks following each vaccination to reach maximum effectiveness, vaccination status was defined (prior to analysis) as:

• Unvaccinated Either no linked vaccination record in NIMS or first dose of vaccine received within 14 days prior to the positive COVID-19 test

• One dose First dose of vaccine received at least 14 days prior to the positive COVID-19 test

• Two doses Second dose of vaccine received at least 14 days prior to the positive COVID-19 test (includes patients that have received third or booster doses)

So firstly, this rules out our unknown vaccination status theory because if unknown they were included as unvaccinated anyway. Secondly, if someone has had a first dose but it has not been at least 14 days since vaccination, they are included as unvaccinated. (Further down, it states of the 5,065 patients classified as unvaccinated, 109 (2.2%) had received a first dose of vaccine within 14 days prior to the positive COVID-19 test.). Thirdly and most importantly, the second dose group only includes individuals who have been vaccinated at least 14 days prior to the positive test.

So, as identified above, the first dose under 14 days individuals are included in the unvaccinated group but the second dose under 14 days group are nowhere to be seen. As far as I can tell, they are not included anywhere. Could this be our missing 1,161 patients?

If so, this would heavily skew the figures. Instead of 5,065 unvaccinated (including 109 <14 days 1st dose), 377 first dose and 3,151 vaccinated, the figures would be 4,312 for the vaccinated group. This changes the percentage from 58% unvaccinated to 52% over the whole period. Furthermore, as noted above, when separated by month, the percentage of unvaccinated individuals started at 75% in May, down to 48% in November, so adding the missing patients above would drop that number even further down still.

What is more worrying is that the 1,161 missing patients represents 12% of patients in ICU over that period. If it is correct that they are individuals who have been vaccinated with a second dose <14 days previously, then that is a very high number of second dosed individuals getting COVID-19 and badly.

I have tweeted ICNARC to ask for an explanation, so there may be a different reason for the disappearance of those patients from the table and I will keep you posted if they respond. However, if I am correct in my analysis, that is a lot of second dosed patients in ICU, skews the statistics and is rather disingenuous. If it is happening with the statistics in the UK, then it is likely to be happening with statistics in your country as well.