It seems these kind of graphs are becoming the norm nowadays.
German 1-year forward baseload electricity went over 340 Euros. For at least 10 years before 2021 it was 50 Euros or lower.
France is in a similar situation. Its price surged to 440 Euros per MWh. This is 675% above the 10-year average. And 1 year forward prices are meant to be more stable!
Maybe now wasn’t the best time for France to take half its nuclear power stations offline for maintenance.
Nor is it the best time for German to switch off its remaining nuclear power stations after already closing several of them in 2021.
And whilst France are relatively self-sufficient when their nuclear power stations are operational, they want to follow Germany and close them all by 2050.
Already, Germany is rationing hot water, closing public swimming pools and dimming street lights. And it’s only July. These kind of prices are going to crush their manufacturing sector, if not the country as a whole. Power prices are already forcing US industrial operations to massively scale back.
Germany’s energy regulator recently published various scenarios for their natural gas supply this winter.
Six out of seven of those scenarios led to completely empty or virtually empty supplies by mid February, if not earlier.
And as things get tighter and tighter, countries will stop exporting, leaving vulnerable countries screwed. For example Libya has just announced that they will reduce gas exports to Italy by 25% to resolve energy prices at home.
In other financial news, US mortgage rates plunged to 5.3%, the biggest drop since 2008.
And credit default swaps for Credit Suisse are heading back up to the moon. These kind of insurance prices, against default, were last seen in 2008.
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Jul 8, 2022·edited Jul 8, 2022Liked by NE - nakedemperor.substack.com
From what I understand, while France may itself be in a better position than many countries re energy, they have locked themselves into the formal EU energy market structure that equalises the pain. Hence why France's follow's Germany's graph. So France takes a hit because of Doltz and his green goblins' actions.
What if the energy companies just ignores the dictates of the administration and just built the pipelines and started drilling? Is it time for civil disobedience in the U.S.?
Over here people are starting to panic over the national bank increasing the official bank rate, which pushes their interest rate on their mortgages up. We've had flat to zero to even below zero rates the last fiv-six years or more, and naturally neither markets nor businesses nor consumers or governement has banked assets towards a "rainy day". And the total tax pressure is about 75% or more. When the farmer buys a tractor, 25% of price is VAT. When he sells his produce the buyer pays 25% VAT. When the buyer sells it to refinery it too pays 25% VAT. When a store buys the refined product it pays 25% VAT. And when you buy it from the store you pay 25% VAT. And on top of that there are lots and lots more taxes. Small wonder fewer and fewer swedes and migranst opt out of working at all - it's no use unless you can land a job paying more than $2 500/month net. A family of two adults and three children get as minimum $2 450/month from welfare. And if you are on welfare, lots of things - like dental - are heavily subsidised or free.
Well, it's starting to pour and all else being equal it's going to rain like in the days of Utnapishtim.
Damn, France was 70% nuclear. The only country that could upgrade to electric cars and it would actually be greener than gasoline cars. Europe's actually a good place to have nuclear power plants too since it's far from any significant fault lines so it doesn't have to worry about earthquakes like Fukushima at least, and on the other hand they get so little sunlight throughout the year that solar panels aren't worthwhile. Then again there was Chernobyl... so maybe they should switch to thorium plants.
We are on the back side of the energy resource cliff. The slope could possibly (probably? almost certainly?) be much steeper than the one we took to get here. Much, much more is in store.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
SEE PAGE 59 - THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
Controlled demolition of everything stable and efficient. Engineering chaos and misery.
I feel like a broken record: the intentional destruction of the world economy. These are choices made by our overlords, and they are deliberate!
From what I understand, while France may itself be in a better position than many countries re energy, they have locked themselves into the formal EU energy market structure that equalises the pain. Hence why France's follow's Germany's graph. So France takes a hit because of Doltz and his green goblins' actions.
I keep asking, and nobody ever gives me an answer. How do we safely store the spent fuel and the contaminated water from nuclear plants?
thepulse.one
What if the energy companies just ignores the dictates of the administration and just built the pipelines and started drilling? Is it time for civil disobedience in the U.S.?
Come on, please tell me, those are from Neil Ferguson, right? RIGHT???
- a German stocking up on candles
Over here people are starting to panic over the national bank increasing the official bank rate, which pushes their interest rate on their mortgages up. We've had flat to zero to even below zero rates the last fiv-six years or more, and naturally neither markets nor businesses nor consumers or governement has banked assets towards a "rainy day". And the total tax pressure is about 75% or more. When the farmer buys a tractor, 25% of price is VAT. When he sells his produce the buyer pays 25% VAT. When the buyer sells it to refinery it too pays 25% VAT. When a store buys the refined product it pays 25% VAT. And when you buy it from the store you pay 25% VAT. And on top of that there are lots and lots more taxes. Small wonder fewer and fewer swedes and migranst opt out of working at all - it's no use unless you can land a job paying more than $2 500/month net. A family of two adults and three children get as minimum $2 450/month from welfare. And if you are on welfare, lots of things - like dental - are heavily subsidised or free.
Well, it's starting to pour and all else being equal it's going to rain like in the days of Utnapishtim.
Damn, France was 70% nuclear. The only country that could upgrade to electric cars and it would actually be greener than gasoline cars. Europe's actually a good place to have nuclear power plants too since it's far from any significant fault lines so it doesn't have to worry about earthquakes like Fukushima at least, and on the other hand they get so little sunlight throughout the year that solar panels aren't worthwhile. Then again there was Chernobyl... so maybe they should switch to thorium plants.
We are on the back side of the energy resource cliff. The slope could possibly (probably? almost certainly?) be much steeper than the one we took to get here. Much, much more is in store.
We have a ... very serious ... energy problem.... as in we are running low on the cheap stuff... and civilization cannot function without cheap energy
Conventional Oil peaked in 2005 http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/C-Cdec141.png
Shale in 2018.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
Oil Discoveries are at record lows https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
Some key points from this Financial Times article: https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/11/10/our-fossil-fuel-energy-predicament-including-why-the-correct-story-is-rarely-told/
SEE PAGE 59 - THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf