What Does 2022 Hold?

A look at the world around us and predictions of what's to come.

On this second day of the New Year, I’m sitting here wondering what 2022 will look like.  Omicron mania, in the UK, died down over the Christmas period, even though cases rose to all time highs.  This is predominantly due to numbers of deaths actually going down but there also seems to be a change in the air.  Our Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, is saying we must learn to live alongside COVID and new rules must be a ‘last resort’.  A senior National Health Service (NHS) boss has said no need for any lockdown measures to tackle Omicron.

Has the tide finally turned? Has the hysteria worn off and is common sense and logic returning? I really hope so but I have the foreboding sense that this is the calm before the storm.  Or probably, more accurately, we are in the eye of the storm right now.  Are we being nudged and softened up for new measures within the next week or so?

Looking at the South African data, Omicron is, without a doubt, much milder than previous variants.  It kills far fewer people but infects much more quickly.  However, my one concern is that, even though deaths in South Africa were low, hospitalisations still went up and much quicker than previously.  Whether this was because patients were hospitalised due to COVID, with COVID, or caught coronavirus in hospital is unclear but I would expect the same trend to follow here.  After all, it is winter here now and hospitalisations always rise in the winter.  The difference between here and South Africa is that it was warmer in South Africa during their Omicron wave and although it has been mild here so far, that is likely to change.

South Africa also has a much younger population who are generally unaffected by coronavirus, compared with our older population.  We also have a much higher proportion of vaccinated individuals which, with traditional vaccines, would be considered a good thing.  However, the evidence to date, suggests natural infection provides a much broader, longer lasting immunity.  It looks like two dosed individuals actually have negative efficacy against Omicron (i.e. they are more likely to get it than an unvaccinated person) but fortunately, as it is milder, they should be able to fight it off easily enough.  Time will tell whether Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) or Original Antigenic Sin (OAS) actually impairs a vaccinated person’s immunity but there are glimpses of concern in the data.

So hospitalisations are likely to rise but deaths not so much (also because a large number of vulnerable individuals sadly died over the last few years, leaving a stronger population – for now.) Will this be used as a premise for further restrictions? I think it probably will, not as draconian as full on lockdowns as before, but more social distancing, arbitrary rules to do with numbers you can meet etc. 

Why do I think this? Although there is a slight change of tone in the press, for a large chunk of the population, these positive news reports go in one ear and out the other.

Secondary school children have just been told that they will need to be masked the whole day when returning to school and 99% of people are adhering to the indoor mask wearing rules.  Even in hospitality venues (where masks are not required) almost everyone wears them, dutifully putting them on to walk to their tables, taking them off to eat and drink, before then replacing them to go to the toilet or leave the building.

The anti-science brigade is growing, not diminishing, even with more and more data showing the true situation.  These people have lived a lie for two years, they’ve used lucky charms (masks, face shields and vaccines) to make themselves feel safe and they don’t want to let them go or admit they were wrong.

The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, sent us a lovely New Year’s message telling us the best resolution is to get boosted to protect ourselves, our family and our NHS ( I can’t stand it when people say OUR NHS).  Instead of telling us the best (most cost effective) way to protect everyone is to exercise, take the correct vitamins and eat and sleep well, he (along with the NHS) tells us that medication is the solution to all our woes.

I spoke to a nurse friend the other day who had a raging fever and was insistent she could not go to work in case she passed on coronavirus – rightly so, she was ill.  She then did a PCR test which turned out to be negative and immediately went to work, still with a raging fever.  Suddenly, it’s ok to potentially kill somebody by giving them flu but as long as its not COVID, that’s all that counts nowadays - no logic.

Triple jabbed individuals who I talk to are still too worried to take a train or visit mildly crowded venues even though they believe they are fully protected from catching or transmitting coronavirus.  They proudly recite stories of how they had to show their COVID status to get in to theatres or other venues, which meant, combined with their masks, they were fully protected.

Abroad, we have Dutch police dogs mauling lockdown and COVID pass protestors and in Austria mandatory vaccinations will soon be in play.  Hefty fines for not being vaccinated will come into force, along with prison sentences if the fines are not paid.  In other countries, the unvaccinated are barred from certain areas or restricted from working.

Here, in the UK, care home workers have been fired if they weren’t vaccinated and shortly hospital staff will suffer the same fate.  COVID pass legislation was enacted, even though the evidence showed how useless they were and it is likely that their use will be extended (and the natural infection and negative test element removed).  Too much time, money and effort has been used in developing these discriminatory tools for them to be discarded now.  Worse still, the perpetually terrified cry out for them and the Left champion them (even though they discriminate against the very people they portray to represent).

No mention from the Left, that COVID disproportionately hospitalises and kills the poor. No debate as to whether the helicopter money dropped on the middle class laptop club would have been better spent on improving the living standards of the poorest and actually saving lives. No foresight to think that the aforementioned helicopter money would create massive inflation, affecting everybody, but disproportionately the poorest. No discussion as to how lockdowns negatively affected the poorest the most and cost far more lives than they actually saved. No concept of how the largest transfer of wealth took place under our noses, without a batter of an eyelid.

That is why I can’t see things changing this year.  Those who have been heavily invested in this theatre over the last few years, don’t want the truth to be revealed.  They will backtrack and double-down to protect themselves as much as they can.  Those who have been in a panicked trance won’t want to change their current reality or remove their comfort blankets.  Those who have taken advantage of the situation will continue to do so whilst watching their bank accounts fill to the brim. Public health and the advising scientists have enjoyed their time in the spotlight and the ever more totalitarian and authoritarian Governments have tasted their new powers and enjoyed them.  They want more and more.  I hope I’m wrong and I don’t see it lasting forever (these things never do) but everyone will need to keep fighting for their rights and freedoms and ensure the ones taken away to date are reinstated immediately.

Hopefully, I’m being too pessimistic. What is it like where you live and how do you envisage 2022 going?