Two dosed 18-39 year olds are 4 times more likely to die from non-Covid causes.

Deaths by vaccination status in England

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The Office of National Statistics (ONS) just released their latest dataset which looks at deaths by vaccination status in England between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2022.

The publication by the ONS says that the data shows that “monthly [age-standardised mortality rates] ASMRs for deaths involving COVID-19 broken down by age group have been consistently lower for all months and all ages for those who had received a third dose or booster at least 21 days ago, compared with unvaccinated people”.

However, they point out that “the age-adjusted rates are not equivalent to measures of vaccine effectiveness; they account for differences in age structure and population size but there may be other differences between the groups, particularly underlying health, which affect the mortality rates”.

So let’s have a look at the data for 18-39 year olds. Firstly Covid-19 deaths.

It seems that vaccinated individuals have a better mortality rate than the unvaccinated when it comes to COVID-19. By January you were 4 times more likely to die from Covid if you were unvaccinated compared with a boosted individual.

What is this in actual raw numbers? In January 17 unvaccinated individuals died with COVID-19. This compares to approximately 8 boosted and 7 double jabbed. In total, approximately 34 people died in January, so the unvaccinated accounted for 50% of the total. The boosted accounted for 24% of the total and the double jabbed 21%.

If we set aside any mis-categorisation issues, that I have discussed in previous articles, these numbers show that the jabs are working. Approximately 29% of the 18-39 population were completely unvaccinated but 50% of the deaths were in that group. So we can say that, on the face of things, the jabs and boosters prevented a small amount of COVID-19 deaths occurring.

Now let’s take a look at non-Covid deaths.

Now it is a completely different picture. The unvaccinated mortality rate is consistently dropping throughout the year. Individuals with two doses see their mortality rate get higher and higher until it peaks in September (when the booster campaign begins). At this point the mortality rate for the two dosed individuals begins to drop as they are shifted to the boosted category. When the boosted campaign begins, the mortality rate of that group jumps straight past the unvaccinated rate before falling back in January.

In terms of percentages, by January 2022, the unvaccinated represent approximately 29% of the population, the two dosed 27% and the boosted 37%. Look at how much higher the mortality rate for the two dosed 18-39 year olds has been throughout the year, when compared with the unvaccinated, and how much higher it still is in January 2022. The double jabbed are 4.2 times more likely to die for non-Covid reasons compared with the unvaccinated in January 2022. The boosted are 1.3 times more likely to die.

Again in terms of raw numbers, in January, approximately 190 individuals died for non-Covid reasons. Only 32 of these (17%) were unvaccinated, even though this group represents 29% of the population. 72 double jabbed individuals died (38%), even though they represent 27% of the population. 76 boosted individuals died (40%), even though they represent 37% of the population.

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In previous articles, I have looked at inconsistencies in the Covid-19 deaths. When first doses are administered, unvaccinated mortality rates shoot up. When second doses are administered, first dose mortality rates shoot up. The same occurred with the booster campaign. There was clearly a mis-categorisation issue happening. However, this was explained by some readers and the ONS as being due to the ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect, whereby the healthiest would get vaccinated first, leaving an unhealthy population in the remaining groups.

If this were the case, the non-Covid death rates would follow the same pattern but as we can see above, it clearly doesn’t. This must mean that the mis-categorisation issue is occurring, making the vaccines seem more effective than they actually are.

Furthermore, and of more concern, is the non-Covid mortality rate of the vaccinated. Some of this can be explained by the most vulnerable getting vaccinated first but after a few months this should adjust back to more normal levels, especially with such a high proportion of individuals getting vaccinated. However, what we saw is that whilst the unvaccinated non-Covid mortality rate improved throughout the year, the two dosed rate got worse and worse.

So, setting mis-categorisation issues aside, the vaccines could be shown to prevent a small number of Covid-19 deaths in this age group. However, individuals who are vaccinated are much more likely to die of non-Covid causes. The numbers of non-Covid deaths are much higher than Covid deaths, so it seems that any lives saved by the vaccines are offset by deaths from other causes.

What is particularly worrying is how high the non-Covid mortality rate is when compared to the unvaccinated. With the double jabbed, it continued to worsen throughout the year and is again moving upwards. This group represents almost a third of the population in the 18-39 age group. It will be interesting to see how the boosted group fares throughout the year, whether their mortality rate will remain similar to the unvaccinated or start increasing like the double jabbed rate did.

To conclude, whilst the data might show that the vaccines prevents a small number of Covid-19 deaths (questionable) it seems to cause more non Covid-19 deaths. This number is larger than the number of deaths it prevents. No more vaccines should be given to young individuals until this has been examined and the cause for the high mortality rate determined.