Births Drop & Abortions Rise in Germany

Persistent Disruptions since 2021

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In a recent post, the blog highlighted that in May 2023, significantly fewer children were born in Germany than expected. Furthermore, abortions also show persistent and serious disruptions since the first quarter or 2021 with a trend reversal in 2022 that is difficult to explain.

The author explains that births and abortions follow a very regular seasonal pattern.

The number of monthly births can be seen in red, whilst the 2022-2024 forecast can be seen in blue, using the 2016-2021 numbers as a trend line.

As you can see, the actual number of births is far below what they were predicted to be from 2022 onwards.

For abortions, the decline started in the first quarter of 2021 and continued until the third quarter of 2021. From that point on the trend completely reversed and is significantly higher than expected.

“The birth rates regularly reached their peaks in July and August, while the number of abortions peaked in the first quarter. The fluctuation range for both was similarly large, around 20%. Since the willingness to carry a child to term is generally not considered to be seasonal, the seasonality of the abortion rates must mainly be due to seasonally fluctuating pregnancies. In this regard, abortion rates are related to future birth rates in two ways.

On one hand, abortions reduce the total number of pregnancies; in the time frame presented, they accounted for 11.5% of all pregnancies. On the other hand, they serve as an indicator for the trend in future birth rates. The time difference is only roughly estimable because abortion data are provided on a quarterly basis.”

The authors then took the relative deviations of births and abortions and plotted them next to Covid vaccinations.

The blue line shows monthly birth deviations, whilst the red line shows vaccinations. Green bars show deviations in abortions.

“In 2020, as in previous years, births and abortions deviated only slightly from the expected values, i.e. they were close to the zero line. 2021 recorded slightly above-average birth rates, with two flat waves emerging. The presumed cause of these waves of births were the lockdowns and similar measures.”

Adding a bit of humour to a serious matter, I found the translation of the explanation of why births increase after lockdowns, amusing. Especially because in my head, I say it in a German accent - “If a man and a woman hang out in their private rooms, this is not without consequences”.

“In the first three quarters of 2021, abortion rates dropped significantly. Corresponding birth rates declined from January 2022. Normally, fewer abortions should lead to more births, but here the previously derived rule applies: abortions can serve as an indicator of the number of pregnancies. During this period, which coincided with the vaccination campaign, fewer pregnancies occurred. This pattern repeated itself in a similar form with the second wave of vaccinations. In between, in the fourth quarter of 2021, there was a period of normal abortion rates after the vaccination frequency had dropped sharply.

In early 2022, vaccination frequency finally dropped and life returned to normal. At this time, the number of abortions rose to unusually high values ​​in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2022, without an increase in the number of births. In fact the opposite happened. Since the beginning of 2023, births have remained at their lowest levels to date.

However, the increased abortion rate can only partially explain this decline. If around 12 out of 100 pregnancies normally terminate, 88 will remain. If abortions increase by 7% as in 2022, just under 13 out of 100 pregnancies will end prematurely, and 87 will remain. This would only account for a birth decline of 1 out of 88, or around 1.1%.”

The authors conclude that the patterns in the chart above indicate that fewer women became pregnant whilst more abortions were performed during this period.

“In summary, two periods can be distinguished. The first was characterised by a combination of declines in pregnancies, abortions, and births. The relationship also held in the opposite direction. The smaller booster peak showed the same pattern but to a lesser extent.

A repeating pattern usually has significant evidential value, in this case against the vaccination campaign, although other influences seemed to have been at play. The sharp drop in abortions in the first quarter of 2021 occurred too early to attribute vaccinations as the sole cause since the highest vaccination frequencies were reached only in the second quarter of 2021.

In the second period, abortion rates increased significantly, but this was not a sign of rising pregnancy rates. Corresponding birth rates later declined even further. Both vaccine-induced, lasting fertility impairments and more cautious family planning are possible causes. The proportions of these factors in the decline of pregnancies are not determinable based on the data available so far”.

The article concludes that there is not a definitive explanation for the anomalies. However, one thing is clear - something has gone awry in the area of reproduction and it didn’t start with Covid but in the Winter of 2021/2022. They say that it appears that human reproduction is not particularly sensitive to a new virus but does react poorly to interventions such as lockdowns and vaccinations, as advised by the WHO and health ministries.